Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 30 October 2026 · 19:30 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg), SV Elversberg take on FSV Mainz 05, with S. Stegemann in charge. We make FSV Mainz 05 (46%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: FSV Mainz 05 win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: FSV Mainz 05 lose.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. SV Elversberg lie 7th, having collected 13 points after 8 matches (4W 1D 3L); FSV Mainz 05 lie 10th, having collected 10 points (3W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, SV Elversberg average 1.7 goals for and 2.1 against, compared with 2.3 for and 1.9 against for FSV Mainz 05.
- Form in the competition. SV Elversberg: 3W 1D 3L, goals 12–15; FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 3L, goals 16–13.
- Head to head. In 3 previous meetings, SV Elversberg have taken 1 win to FSV Mainz 05's 1 win, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 6–4.
What to expect
In our view FSV Mainz 05 hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 3; SV Elversberg 1 win, 1 draw, FSV Mainz 05 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: SV Elversberg 12–15, FSV Mainz 05 16–13.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: SV Elversberg 6, FSV Mainz 05 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 61%, top price 1.60). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for SV Elversberg: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich, L. Gunther, J. Gyamerah, L. Pinckert, L. Seifert. FSV Mainz 05 will be without: D. Kohr, Silas, N. Amiri, O. Ruoppi. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.60 | 4.07 | 2.20 |
| Market average | 3.31 | 3.77 | 2.05 |
| Lowest odds | 2.73 | 3.38 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.44 | 38.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.33 | 40.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.53 | 36.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 30/10/26, 18:08. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: SV Elversberg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SV Elversberg 7th (13 points), FSV Mainz 05 10th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: SV Elversberg 3W 1D 3L (12:15), FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 3L (16:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: SV Elversberg 1W 1D 1L, goals 6–4.
- Absences: SV Elversberg 6, FSV Mainz 05 4.
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: injuries and missing players
SV Elversberg
- T. Zimmerschiedankle injury · will miss the match
- N. Darvichhamstring injury · doubtful
- L. Guntherknock · doubtful
- J. Gyamerahthigh injury · doubtful
- L. Pinckertmuscle injury · doubtful
- L. Seifertankle injury · doubtful
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- N. Amiriknee injury · doubtful
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
SV Elversberg
Home and away
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: last matches of both teams
SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SV ElversbergWLWLDFSV Mainz 05LLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.90); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our estimate gives SV Elversberg a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FSV Mainz 05 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 30 October 2026 at 19:30, venue Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg. Referee: S. Stegemann.
Who will be missing?
SV Elversberg: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich, L. Gunther, J. Gyamerah, L. Pinckert, L. Seifert. FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, N. Amiri, O. Ruoppi. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (7.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.