Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 16 October 2026 · 19:00 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen), Heerenveen take on Excelsior, with Robin Hensgens, Netherlands in charge. We make Heerenveen (60%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Heerenveen win by 2 or more. Stake back: Heerenveen win by 1. Loses: a draw, Heerenveen lose.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Heerenveen lie 7th, having collected 18 points after 11 matches (5W 3D 3L); Excelsior lie 15th, having collected 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
What to expect
In our view Heerenveen hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.84), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 65%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 68%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
- Unavailable: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, top price 2.08). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Heerenveen: no absences. Excelsior will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Market average | 1.56 | 4.44 | 5.20 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.08 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.37 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.94 | 2.86 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.60 | 35.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 16/10/26, 17:16. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Absences: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: injuries and missing players
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: last matches of both teams
Heerenveen
Excelsior
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Heerenveen -1 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Under 3.5 goals (1.84).
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our estimate gives Heerenveen a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Excelsior 18%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 16 October 2026 at 19:00, venue Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.43) and under 2.5 goals at 32% (odds 2.94).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 65% (odds 1.44).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.6%), then 1–1 (8.6%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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