Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool welcome Villarreal on 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool), and the referee is Szymon Marciniak, Poland. Liverpool (62%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Villarreal win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Villarreal lose by 1. Loses: Villarreal lose by 2 or more.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Liverpool lie 8th, having collected 9 points after 4 matches (3W 0D 1L); Villarreal lie 28th, having collected 3 points (1W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. In 5 previous meetings, Liverpool have taken 4 wins to Villarreal's 1 win, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 12–6.
What to expect
In our view Liverpool hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 5; Liverpool 4 wins, 0 draws, Villarreal 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.6 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Liverpool 0, Villarreal 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Liverpool: no absences. Villarreal will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.62 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Market average | 1.54 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.46 | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 1.47 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 36.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.20 | 43.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.36 | 39.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 20/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Liverpool 2–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Liverpool 8th (9 points), Villarreal 28th (3 points).
- H2H: 5 matches: Liverpool 4W 0D 1L, goals 12–6.
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Villarreal 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Liverpool vs Villarreal: injuries and missing players
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Villarreal
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
Recent matches
Liverpool
Home and away
Liverpool vs Villarreal: last matches of both teams
Liverpool
Villarreal
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Villarreal +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Over 2.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our estimate gives Liverpool a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 17%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 20 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: Szymon Marciniak, Poland.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Villarreal: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.51) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 1–1 (8.9%) and 2–0 (8.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.