Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 24 October 2026 · 17:30 at Estadio de Mestalla (Valdivia), Valencia take on Villarreal, with Alejandro Quintero González, Spain in charge. We make Villarreal (46%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Villarreal win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Villarreal lose.
Valencia vs Villarreal: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Valencia lie 19th, having collected 9 points after 11 matches (2W 3D 6L); Villarreal lie 10th, having collected 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Valencia average 0.7 goals for and 1.7 against, compared with 1.4 for and 1.4 against for Villarreal.
- Form in the competition. Valencia: 1W 3D 5L, goals 6–15; Villarreal: 2W 3D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. In 35 previous meetings, Valencia have taken 14 wins to Villarreal's 14 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 47–42.
What to expect
In our view Villarreal hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 35; Valencia 14 wins, 7 draws, Villarreal 14 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Valencia 6–15, Villarreal 13–13.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 59%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Villarreal will be without: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Valencia vs Villarreal: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.55 | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.46 | 3.59 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.13 | 44.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 | 2.77 | 34.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 12:03. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Valencia 1–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Valencia 19th (9 points), Villarreal 10th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Valencia 1W 3D 5L (6:15), Villarreal 2W 3D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 35 matches: Valencia 14W 7D 14L, goals 47–42.
- Absences: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Valencia vs Villarreal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Valencia vs Villarreal: injuries and missing players
Valencia
- S. Canosknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Copeteknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Foulquierknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lopezknee injury · will miss the match
- U. Sadiqmuscle injury · will miss the match
Villarreal
- N. Pepeabsence · will miss the match
- C. Romeroinjury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Valencia
Home and away
Valencia vs Villarreal: last matches of both teams
Valencia
Villarreal
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
ValenciaWLDDLVillarrealLWDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Villarreal +0 (Asian handicap) (1.61); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our estimate gives Valencia a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Villarreal 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 17:30, venue Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. Referee: Alejandro Quintero González, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Villarreal: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.79) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.3%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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