Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monza vs Napoli, 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Brianteo (Monza), with Giovanni Ayroldi officiating. The odds point to Napoli (56%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Napoli win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Napoli win by 1. Loses: a draw, Napoli lose.
Monza vs Napoli: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Monza lie 18th, having collected 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L); Napoli lie 8th, having collected 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Monza average 1.9 goals for and 2.3 against, compared with 1.6 for and 1.3 against for Napoli.
- Form in the competition. Monza: 2W 1D 5L, goals 15–18; Napoli: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. In 7 previous meetings, Monza have taken 1 win to Napoli's 5 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 5–15.
What to expect
In our view Napoli hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.4%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 56%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 57%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 7; Monza 1 win, 1 draw, Napoli 5 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Monza 15–18, Napoli 13–10.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
- Unavailable: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 57%, top price 1.71). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Napoli will be without: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Monza vs Napoli: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.89 | 4.06 | 1.71 |
| Market average | 4.78 | 4.04 | 1.71 |
| Lowest odds | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.20 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.69 | 56.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.21 | 43.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.69 | 35.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.11 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Napoli, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Napoli 8th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Monza 2W 1D 5L (15:18), Napoli 3W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 7 matches: Monza 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–15.
- Absences: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Monza vs Napoli: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Monza vs Napoli: injuries and missing players
Monza
- M. Folorunshoabsence · will miss the match
- Y. Mayemuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Pessinaknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ziolkowskifoot injury · will miss the match
Napoli
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury · will miss the match
- B. Badiashileinjury · will miss the match
- A. Buongiornoknee injury · will miss the match
- David Neresthigh injury · will miss the match
- C. Favasulithigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Spinazzolathigh injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Monza vs Napoli: last matches of both teams
Monza
Napoli
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MonzaLLLWLNapoliLWDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Monza vs Napoli?
Napoli -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.49).
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
Our estimate gives Monza a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Napoli 56%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi.
Who will be missing?
Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.71) and under 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 56% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.4%), then 0–1 (9.9%) and 1–2 (9.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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