Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Parma vs Bologna (Serie A, 7 November 2026, 17:00): Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87. Second tip: Bologna to win at odds of 1.87. The bookmakers' odds give Parma 21%, the draw 27% and Bologna 52%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Parma vs Bologna preview and prediction
Parma open their home matchday against Bologna at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:00, in Serie A Matchweek 11. The Tardini holds 22885, and on paper the visitors are the side with the better season so far. We think the bookmakers have that right, but we are less sure the goals will follow the story.
The key facts
- Likely result: Parma 0–1 Bologna, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Parma 15th (8 points), Bologna 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Parma 2W 2D 6L (8:15), Bologna 4W 2D 4L (14:13).
- H2H: 19 matches: Parma 4W 9D 6L, goals 16–25.
- Absences: Parma 0, Bologna 0.
Parma's home form has been poor
In this competition only, Parma sit 15th with 8 points from 10 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and 8 goals scored against 15 conceded. At home the record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 6 conceded.
Their last five matches in all competitions tell a similar story. Parma have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. The most recent result was a 3-0 win away at Atalanta, which is the only reason their form line looks better than the table. Before that came a 0-0 draw with Udinese at home and a 3-0 home defeat to Torino. We would not read too much into one away win.
Who will win Parma vs Bologna?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bologna's away form is the strongest case on the card
Bologna are 9th in the same table with 14 points from 10 matches: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 14 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their away record is the figure that stands out, with 3 wins, no draws and 2 defeats, and 8 goals scored against 5 conceded on the road.
The recent results are even more convincing. Bologna have won four of their last five matches in all competitions and lost only one, a 1-3 home defeat to Inter. They came away from Cagliari with a 2-0 win and from AC Milan with a 4-2 win, and they beat Monza 2-1 at home most recently. Those are not the results of a side in trouble, and they are the reason we think the away side deserves to be the favourite here.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Parma
Home and away
Head to head
All matchesSix wins for Bologna in the meetings, and no injury news
The head-to-head record over the last 19 meetings reads Parma 4 wins, 9 draws, Bologna 6 wins, with 16 goals scored by Parma and 25 by Bologna. Most of those games were close, and the draws are the detail we keep coming back to. Parma's most recent win in this fixture came away at Bologna on 8 February 2026, a 1-0 Parma win. Bologna were the stronger side in the earlier meetings, including a 3-1 win at the Tardini in November 2025.
No absences have been reported for either side, so the teams we see on the pitch should be the ones we expect.
Parma vs Bologna: injuries and missing players
Parma
- No reported absences
Bologna
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
ParmaWDLLLBolognaWWWLWOur tip is Under 2.5, with Bologna close behind
The bookmakers give Bologna a 51% chance at best odds 1.89, Parma 22% at best odds 4.63, and a draw 27% at best odds 3.68. The margin on the match result is 5.9%. The most likely exact scores are 0-1 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.0%) and 0-2 (10.4%).
Our main tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.79 (chance 56%). Parma kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 matches, so they are not always leaking goals, and the market price on Under 2.5 is the best value we can see on the goals line. The score lines that win this bet are 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0. The one that loses it is 1-2. We would not go beyond a single unit on it, because the market's own expected-goals figure of about 3 in total points the other way.
Our second tip is Bologna to win at odds 1.89 (chance 51%). Bologna won 4 of their last 5 and lost only 1, Parma won only 1 of their last 5, and Bologna's away record of 3 wins from 5 games is the strongest figure in this table. Bologna have also won 6 of the last 19 meetings against Parma's 4. This bet wins on 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2, and loses on 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0. That split is exactly why we want to keep it at a smaller stake than the main tip.
Parma vs Bologna: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Parma vs Bologna: last matches of both teams
Parma
Bologna
Safer lines if you want less risk
If you prefer a bet that does not depend on a single score, these are the ones we like from the list of available markets:
- Draw or Bologna (X2) at odds 1.24 (chance 78%). It covers a draw as well as a Bologna win, and sits well alongside our second tip.
- Bologna +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 78%). The bet wins unless Bologna lose by 1 or more.
- Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27 (chance 76%). It fits with the main tip, and the market expects a total around three goals.
- Bologna -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88 (chance 52%). Bologna must win by 1 or more for this to land, so it is a more demanding version of the second tip.
We would avoid any bet that needs Parma to outscore Bologna. Their home numbers do not support that, and the form line does not either.
Parma vs Bologna: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.75 | 3.76 | 1.87 |
| Market average | 4.50 | 3.58 | 1.82 |
| Lowest odds | 4.05 | 3.29 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.33 | 71.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.80 | 53.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.54 | 26.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.88 | 49.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.85 | 50.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 06:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Parma vs Bologna?
Under 2.5 goals (1.87); Bologna to win (1.87).
Who will win Parma vs Bologna?
Our estimate gives Parma a 21% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bologna 52%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 7 November 2026 at 17:00, venue Ennio Tardini, Parma. Referee: Luca Zufferli.
Who will be missing?
Parma: no absences. Bologna: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.10) and under 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.87).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 50% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–1 (12.5%), then 1–1 (11.9%) and 0–2 (10.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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