Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 19 October 2026 · 17:30 at Stadio Brianteo (Monza), Monza take on Cagliari, with Andrea Calzavara, Italy in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Monza win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Monza lose.
Monza vs Cagliari: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Monza lie 18th, having collected 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L); Cagliari lie 12th, having collected 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.8%). This one looks finely poised.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Cagliari, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 53%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 46%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
- Unavailable: Monza 0, Cagliari 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 53%, top price 1.83). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Monza: no absences. Cagliari will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Monza vs Cagliari: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.74 | 3.24 | 3.06 |
| Market average | 2.51 | 3.14 | 2.91 |
| Lowest odds | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.06 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.77 | 53.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.80 | 3.60 | 26.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.77 | 52.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 1.98 | 47.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 19/10/26, 16:28. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Cagliari, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Absences: Monza 0, Cagliari 0.
Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Monza vs Cagliari: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
Monza vs Cagliari: injuries and missing players
Monza
- No reported absences
Cagliari
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Monza vs Cagliari: last matches of both teams
Monza
Cagliari
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Monza vs Cagliari?
Monza +0 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 2.5 goals (1.81).
Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?
Our estimate gives Monza a 38% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Cagliari 32%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 19 October 2026 at 17:30, venue Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Andrea Calzavara, Italy.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Cagliari: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.18) and under 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 53% (odds 1.83).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.8%), then 1–0 (10.7%) and 0–1 (9.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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