Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Celje, 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau (Graz), with Giorgi Kruashvili officiating. The odds point to Sturm Graz (63%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Celje win, a draw, Celje lose by 1. Loses: Celje lose by 2 or more.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sturm Graz lie 24th, having collected 4 points after 4 matches (1W 1D 2L); Celje lie 25th, having collected 4 points (1W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sturm Graz average 0.3 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 0.7 for and 2.3 against for Celje.
- Form in the competition. Sturm Graz: 1W 1D 1L, goals 1–3; Celje: 0W 1D 2L, goals 2–7.
What to expect
In our view Sturm Graz hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.58), which we give a 61% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sturm Graz 1–3, Celje 2–7.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: Sturm Graz 10, Celje 6.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sturm Graz: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic, S. Jatta, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, F. Rozga, E. Soglo, N. Weiper, S. Wlodarczyk. Celje will be without: I. Calusic, J. Pisek, R. Pozeg, Z. L. Sega, S. Sluga, D. Vuklisevic. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.55 | 4.85 | 6.80 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.48 | 5.93 |
| Lowest odds | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 80.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 1.56 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.41 | 39.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.36 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.64 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.15 | 43.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sturm Graz 2–1 Celje, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sturm Graz 24th (4 points), Celje 25th (4 points).
- Form in the competition: Sturm Graz 1W 1D 1L (1:3), Celje 0W 1D 2L (2:7).
- Absences: Sturm Graz 10, Celje 6.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sturm Graz vs Celje: injuries and missing players
Sturm Graz
- N. Geyrhofernot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Grgicknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Jattashoulder injury · will miss the match
- D. Khudyakovabsence · will miss the match
- O. Kiteishvilicalf injury · will miss the match
- G. Mamageishviliinjury · will miss the match
- F. Rozgamuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. Soglomuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Weiperinjury · will miss the match
- S. Wlodarczyknot in the squad · will miss the match
Celje
- I. Calusicnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Piseknot in the squad · will miss the match
- R. Pozegnot in the squad · will miss the match
- Z. L. Seganot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Sluganot in the squad · will miss the match
- D. Vuklisevicnot in the squad · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Sturm Graz
Home and away
Sturm Graz vs Celje: last matches of both teams
Sturm Graz
Celje
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Sturm GrazLWLDCeljeWDLLReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Celje +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.65); Over 2.5 goals (1.58).
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Our estimate gives Sturm Graz a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Celje 16%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 20:00, venue Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz. Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili.
Who will be missing?
Sturm Graz: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic, S. Jatta, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, F. Rozga, E. Soglo, N. Weiper, S. Wlodarczyk. Celje: I. Calusic, J. Pisek, R. Pozeg, Z. L. Sega, S. Sluga, D. Vuklisevic. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.58) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.50).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.