Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sturm Graz welcome Marseille on 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau (Graz), and the referee is Nenad Minaković. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Sturm Graz win, a draw. Stake back: Sturm Graz lose by 1. Loses: Sturm Graz lose by 2 or more.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sturm Graz lie 24th, having collected 4 points after 4 matches (1W 1D 2L); Marseille lie 31st, having collected 3 points (1W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have taken 1 win to Marseille's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 1–0.
What to expect
In our view Marseille hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 64%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; Sturm Graz 1 win, 0 draws, Marseille 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 61%, top price 1.60). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sturm Graz: no absences. Marseille will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Market average | 3.07 | 3.54 | 2.21 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.09 | 2.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.42 | 39.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.34 | 40.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.59 | 36.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 22/10/26, 16:29. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sturm Graz 24th (4 points), Marseille 31st (3 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Sturm Graz 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0.
- Absences: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: injuries and missing players
Sturm Graz
- No reported absences
Marseille
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Sturm Graz
Home and away
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: last matches of both teams
Sturm Graz
Marseille
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Sturm Graz +1 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our estimate gives Sturm Graz a 31% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Marseille 43%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 October 2026 at 17:45, venue Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz. Referee: Nenad Minaković.
Who will be missing?
Sturm Graz: no absences. Marseille: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 64% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.7%), then 1–2 (9.1%) and 0–1 (7.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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