Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon), Benfica take on Lech Poznań, with Martin Matosa in charge. We make Benfica (85%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Benfica lie 1st, having collected 12 points after 4 matches (4W 0D 0L); Lech Poznań lie 35th, having collected 1 point (0W 1D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Benfica average 3.2 goals for and 0.9 against, compared with 2.3 for and 1.6 against for Lech Poznań.
- Form in the competition. Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 29–8; Lech Poznań: 3W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Head to head. In 2 previous meetings, Benfica have taken 2 wins to Lech Poznań's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 8–2.
What to expect
In our view Benfica hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 3–0 (10.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.14), the goals markets are also worth considering: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.69), which we give a 59% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 77%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 2; Benfica 2 wins, 0 draws, Lech Poznań 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 5.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Benfica 29–8, Lech Poznań 16–11.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 77%.
- Unavailable: Benfica 3, Lech Poznań 6.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Benfica: L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, D. Lukebakio. Lech Poznań will be without: A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho, A. Sayyadmanesh. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.14 | 10.35 | 23.00 |
| Market average | 1.12 | 9.58 | 18.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.09 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.06 | 88.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.22 | 76.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.50 | 4.05 | 23.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.62 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.84 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.89 | 49.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Benfica 3–0 Lech Poznań, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 1st (12 points), Lech Poznań 35th (1 point).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (29:8), Lech Poznań 3W 2D 2L (16:11).
- H2H: 2 matches: Benfica 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Absences: Benfica 3, Lech Poznań 6.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: injuries and missing players
Benfica
- L. Barreironot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Barrenecheainjury · will miss the match
- D. Lukebakioinjury · doubtful
Lech Poznań
- A. Douglasankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Gholizadehknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Ishaknot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Monkainjury · will miss the match
- J. Moutinhonot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Sayyadmaneshgroin injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: last matches of both teams
Benfica
Lech Poznań
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BenficaWWWWLech PoznańLDLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Over 3.5 goals (1.69); Benfica to win (1.14).
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Our estimate gives Benfica a 85% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Lech Poznań 5%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 20:00, venue Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Referee: Martin Matosa.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, D. Lukebakio. Lech Poznań: A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho, A. Sayyadmanesh. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 77% (odds 1.26) and under 2.5 goals at 23% (odds 4.50).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.91).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 3–0 (10.5%), then 2–0 (9.7%) and 4–0 (8.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.