Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Benfica welcome Alverca on 2 November 2026 · 20:15 at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon), and the referee is Bruno Pires Costa. Benfica (85%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Benfica vs Alverca: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Benfica lie 2nd, having collected 25 points after 10 matches (8W 1D 1L); Alverca lie 11th, having collected 11 points (3W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Benfica average 2.9 goals for and 0.9 against, compared with 1.4 for and 1.4 against for Alverca.
- Form in the competition. Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 26–8; Alverca: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. In 3 previous meetings, Benfica have taken 3 wins to Alverca's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 5–2.
What to expect
In our view Benfica hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 3–0 (10.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.15), the goals markets are also worth considering: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.76), which we give a 56% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 49%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 75%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 3; Benfica 3 wins, 0 draws, Alverca 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Benfica 26–8, Alverca 13–13.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 75%.
- Unavailable: Benfica 0, Alverca 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Benfica: no absences. Alverca will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Benfica vs Alverca: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.15 | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| Market average | 1.12 | 9.38 | 18.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.10 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 1.05 | 88.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.76 | 24.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.68 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.88 | 49.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.83 | 50.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 2/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Benfica 3–0 Alverca, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 2nd (25 points), Alverca 11th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (26:8), Alverca 3W 2D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: Benfica 3W 0D 0L, goals 5–2.
- Absences: Benfica 0, Alverca 0.
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Benfica vs Alverca: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Benfica vs Alverca: injuries and missing players
Benfica
- No reported absences
Alverca
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Benfica vs Alverca: last matches of both teams
Benfica
Alverca
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BenficaWWWLWAlvercaLLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Benfica vs Alverca?
Over 3.5 goals (1.76); Benfica to win (1.15).
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
Our estimate gives Benfica a 85% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Alverca 5%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 2 November 2026 at 20:15, venue Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Referee: Bruno Pires Costa.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: no absences. Alverca: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 75% (odds 1.28) and under 2.5 goals at 25% (odds 4.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 2.00).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 3–0 (10.5%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 4–0 (8.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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