Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 30 October 2026 · 20:05 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Lille), Lille take on Lens, with Jérôme Brisard in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Lille vs Lens: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lille lie 2nd, having collected 18 points after 9 matches (5W 3D 1L); Lens lie 9th, having collected 13 points (4W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Lille average 1.4 goals for and 0.8 against, compared with 2.0 for and 1.5 against for Lens.
- Form in the competition. Lille: 4W 3D 1L, goals 11–6; Lens: 4W 1D 3L, goals 16–12.
- Head to head. In 18 previous meetings, Lille have taken 11 wins to Lens's 3 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 31–14.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.7%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.78), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 48%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 18; Lille 11 wins, 4 draws, Lens 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Lille 11–6, Lens 16–12.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
- Unavailable: Lille 4, Lens 6.
Alternative tip: Lille or draw (1X)
Another angle: Lille or draw (1X) (probability 65%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lille: H. Igamane, T. Nianzou, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Lens will be without: N. Celik, J. Chavez, O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lille vs Lens: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.76 | 3.37 | 2.83 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.27 | 2.71 |
| Lowest odds | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.31 | 71.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.83 | 52.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.64 | 3.48 | 27.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.78 | 1.74 | 53.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.01 | 46.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 30/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lille 1–1 Lens, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lille 2nd (18 points), Lens 9th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lille 4W 3D 1L (11:6), Lens 4W 1D 3L (16:12).
- H2H: 18 matches: Lille 11W 4D 3L, goals 31–14.
- Absences: Lille 4, Lens 6.
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lille vs Lens: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lille vs Lens: injuries and missing players
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Nianzoured card · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
Lens
- N. Celiknot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Chavezabsence · will miss the match
- O. Edouardgroin injury · will miss the match
- I. Ganiouknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Nawrockiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Simamuscle injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lille
Home and away
Lille vs Lens: last matches of both teams
Lille
Lens
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LilleWDDWLLensLWWWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lille vs Lens?
Under 2.5 goals (2.02); Lille or draw (1X) (1.50).
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
Our estimate gives Lille a 36% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lens 35%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 30 October 2026 at 20:05, venue Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Lille: H. Igamane, T. Nianzou, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Lens: N. Celik, J. Chavez, O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.08) and under 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.78).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.7%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 0–1 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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