Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lazio vs Parma, 24 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), with Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy officiating. The odds point to Lazio (66%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Parma win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Parma lose by 1. Loses: Parma lose by 2 or more.
Lazio vs Parma: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lazio lie 1st, having collected 28 points after 10 matches (9W 1D 0L); Parma lie 15th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Lazio average 2.0 goals for and 0.6 against, compared with 0.6 for and 1.9 against for Parma.
- Form in the competition. Lazio: 6W 1D 0L, goals 14–4; Parma: 1W 1D 5L, goals 4–13.
- Head to head. In 22 previous meetings, Lazio have taken 15 wins to Parma's 2 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 38–18.
What to expect
In our view Lazio hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (13.1%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score: no (odds 1.75), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 46%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 51%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 22; Lazio 15 wins, 5 draws, Parma 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Lazio 14–4, Parma 4–13.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
- Unavailable: Lazio 4, Parma 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.94). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Parma will be without: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege, H. Nicolussi Caviglia, L. Valenti. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lazio vs Parma: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.49 | 4.60 | 8.57 |
| Market average | 1.44 | 4.46 | 7.81 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.94 | 1.88 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.93 | 49.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.18 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.08 | 2.03 | 45.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lazio 1–0 Parma, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lazio 1st (28 points), Parma 15th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Lazio 6W 1D 0L (14:4), Parma 1W 1D 5L (4:13).
- H2H: 22 matches: Lazio 15W 5D 2L, goals 38–18.
- Absences: Lazio 4, Parma 4.
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lazio vs Parma: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lazio vs Parma: injuries and missing players
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
Parma
- P. Almqvistcalf injury · will miss the match
- N. Elphegeillness · will miss the match
- H. Nicolussi Cavigliathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Valentiabsence · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lazio
Home and away
Lazio vs Parma: last matches of both teams
Lazio
Parma
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LazioWWWWWParmaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lazio vs Parma?
Parma +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Both teams to score: no (1.75).
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
Our estimate gives Lazio a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Parma 12%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy.
Who will be missing?
Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Parma: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege, H. Nicolussi Caviglia, L. Valenti. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.94) and under 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 46% (odds 2.08).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (13.1%), then 2–0 (12.8%) and 1–1 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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