Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sassuolo welcome Fiorentina on 2 November 2026 · 17:30 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia), and the referee is Matteo Marcenaro. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sassuolo lie 17th, having collected 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L); Fiorentina lie 16th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sassuolo average 1.6 goals for and 2.4 against, compared with 1.2 for and 2.3 against for Fiorentina.
- Form in the competition. Sassuolo: 2W 2D 5L, goals 14–22; Fiorentina: 1W 2D 6L, goals 11–21.
- Head to head. In 25 previous meetings, Sassuolo have taken 8 wins to Fiorentina's 10 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 36–44.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.4%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.45), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 66%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 63%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 25; Sassuolo 8 wins, 7 draws, Fiorentina 10 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sassuolo 14–22, Fiorentina 11–21.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
- Unavailable: Sassuolo 5, Fiorentina 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 63%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sassuolo: D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz, K. Thorstvedt. Fiorentina will be without: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.92 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Market average | 2.80 | 3.64 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.50 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.68 | 2.53 | 37.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.70 | 34.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 2/11/26, 16:22. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sassuolo 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Sassuolo 17th (8 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Sassuolo 2W 2D 5L (14:22), Fiorentina 1W 2D 6L (11:21).
- H2H: 25 matches: Sassuolo 8W 7D 10L, goals 36–44.
- Absences: Sassuolo 5, Fiorentina 5.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: injuries and missing players
Sassuolo
- D. Bolocamuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Konebroken leg · will miss the match
- F. Leysenknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Pazknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Thorstvedtred card · will miss the match
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sassuolo
Home and away
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: last matches of both teams
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SassuoloLLLLDFiorentinaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Under 3.5 goals (1.71); Draw or Fiorentina (X2) (1.47).
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our estimate gives Sassuolo a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 40%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 2 November 2026 at 17:30, venue Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. Referee: Matteo Marcenaro.
Who will be missing?
Sassuolo: D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz, K. Thorstvedt. Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.57) and under 2.5 goals at 37% (odds 2.68).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 66% (odds 1.45).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.4%), then 1–2 (8.6%) and 2–1 (8.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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