Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Southampton vs QPR, 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), with Tim Robinson officiating. The odds point to Southampton (49%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Southampton vs QPR: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Southampton lie 7th, having collected 24 points after 14 matches (8W 4D 2L); QPR lie 11th, having collected 21 points (5W 6D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Southampton average 2.0 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 1.7 for and 1.0 against for QPR.
- Form in the competition. Southampton: 7W 3D 2L, goals 24–12; QPR: 5W 5D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. In 9 previous meetings, Southampton have taken 8 wins to QPR's 1 win, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 21–7.
What to expect
In our view Southampton hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.52), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 62%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 9; Southampton 8 wins, 0 draws, QPR 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.1 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Southampton 24–12, QPR 20–12.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: Southampton 2, QPR 5.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 61%, top price 1.60). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Southampton: F. Downes, C. Larin. QPR will be without: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue, J. Clarke-Salter. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Southampton vs QPR: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.00 | 3.95 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 1.91 | 3.74 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.78 | 3.40 | 3.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 80.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.57 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.31 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.54 | 2.44 | 38.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.52 | 1.50 | 61.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.44 | 38.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 13:40. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Southampton 1–1 QPR, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 7th (24 points), QPR 11th (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Southampton 7W 3D 2L (24:12), QPR 5W 5D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 9 matches: Southampton 8W 0D 1L, goals 21–7.
- Absences: Southampton 2, QPR 5.
Who will win Southampton vs QPR?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Southampton vs QPR: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Southampton vs QPR: injuries and missing players
Southampton
- F. Downesankle injury · doubtful
- C. Larinhamstring injury · doubtful
QPR
- R. Burrellnot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Lampteynot in the squad · will miss the match
- N. Madseninjury · will miss the match
- A. S. Mbengueknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Clarke-Salterinjury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Southampton
Home and away
Southampton vs QPR: last matches of both teams
Southampton
QPR
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SouthamptonDWWDWQPRDLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Southampton vs QPR?
Draw or QPR (X2) (2.02); Both teams to score (1.52).
Who will win Southampton vs QPR?
Our estimate gives Southampton a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and QPR 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 15:00, venue St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Tim Robinson.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: F. Downes, C. Larin. QPR: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue, J. Clarke-Salter. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.62) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.42).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 62% (odds 1.52).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.7%), then 2–1 (9.6%) and 1–0 (8.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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