Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen welcome Marseille on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at BayArena (Bayer Leverkusen), and the referee is Orel Grinfeld. Bayer Leverkusen (73%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bayer Leverkusen lie 7th, having collected 9 points after 4 matches (3W 0D 1L); Marseille lie 31st, having collected 3 points (1W 0D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bayer Leverkusen average 2.7 goals for and 0.0 against, compared with 0.3 for and 2.0 against for Marseille.
- Form in the competition. Bayer Leverkusen: 3W 0D 0L, goals 8–0; Marseille: 0W 0D 3L, goals 1–6.
What to expect
In our view Bayer Leverkusen hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.62), which we give a 59% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 71%.
The prediction at a glance
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bayer Leverkusen 8–0, Marseille 1–6.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
- Unavailable: Bayer Leverkusen 10, Marseille 2.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.93). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bayer Leverkusen: E. Ben Seghir, V. Boniface, M. Diaby, G. Doue, K. Eichhorn, C. Kofane, T. Oermann, M. Terrier, L. Bade, N. Tella. Marseille will be without: D. Cornelius, Emerson. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.35 | 6.40 | 9.50 |
| Market average | 1.30 | 6.09 | 8.39 |
| Lowest odds | 1.25 | 5.50 | 7.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.32 | 71.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.28 | 28.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.86 | 51.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.25 | 41.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Marseille, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayer Leverkusen 7th (9 points), Marseille 31st (3 points).
- Form in the competition: Bayer Leverkusen 3W 0D 0L (8:0), Marseille 0W 0D 3L (1:6).
- Absences: Bayer Leverkusen 10, Marseille 2.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: injuries and missing players
Bayer Leverkusen
- E. Ben Seghirmuscle injury · will miss the match
- V. Bonifacenot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Diabyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- G. Douecalf injury · will miss the match
- K. Eichhornillness · will miss the match
- C. Kofanemuscle injury · will miss the match
- T. Oermannnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Terriermuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Badeabsence · doubtful
- N. Tellamuscle injury · doubtful
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
- Emersonknee injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Bayer Leverkusen
Home and away
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: last matches of both teams
Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Bayer LeverkusenLWWWMarseilleWLLLReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Over 3.5 goals (1.93); Bayer Leverkusen to win (1.35).
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our estimate gives Bayer Leverkusen a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Marseille 11%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 20:00, venue BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen. Referee: Orel Grinfeld.
Who will be missing?
Bayer Leverkusen: E. Ben Seghir, V. Boniface, M. Diaby, G. Doue, K. Eichhorn, C. Kofane, T. Oermann, M. Terrier, L. Bade, N. Tella. Marseille: D. Cornelius, Emerson. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 71% (odds 1.35) and under 2.5 goals at 29% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.0%), then 2–0 (9.0%) and 3–1 (8.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.