Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 1 November 2026 · 19:45 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille), Marseille take on Toulouse, with Hakim Ben el Hadj in charge. We make Marseille (50%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Toulouse win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Toulouse lose by 1. Loses: Toulouse lose by 2 or more.
Marseille vs Toulouse: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Marseille lie 6th, having collected 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L); Toulouse lie 10th, having collected 13 points (3W 4D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Marseille average 2.3 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 1.5 for and 1.4 against for Toulouse.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 4W 0D 4L, goals 18–13; Toulouse: 2W 4D 2L, goals 12–11.
- Head to head. In 33 previous meetings, Marseille have taken 19 wins to Toulouse's 2 wins, plus 12 draws; the goal tally stands at 64–29.
What to expect
In our view Marseille hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 65%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 33; Marseille 19 wins, 12 draws, Toulouse 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.8 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Marseille 18–13, Toulouse 12–11.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 64%, top price 1.52). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Marseille: D. Cornelius. Toulouse will be without: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Marseille vs Toulouse: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.97 | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| Market average | 1.92 | 3.96 | 3.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.87 | 3.58 | 3.19 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.58 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 2.23 | 42.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.44 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Marseille 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Toulouse 10th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 4W 0D 4L (18:13), Toulouse 2W 4D 2L (12:11).
- H2H: 33 matches: Marseille 19W 12D 2L, goals 64–29.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Marseille vs Toulouse: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Marseille vs Toulouse: injuries and missing players
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Toulouse
- R. Messalithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Nifloreknee injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Toulouse: last matches of both teams
Marseille
Toulouse
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLToulouseWLDWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Marseille vs Toulouse?
Toulouse +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our estimate gives Marseille a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toulouse 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Hakim Ben el Hadj.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Toulouse: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 65% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (9.9%), then 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (7.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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