Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lazio welcome Cagliari on 1 November 2026 · 14:00 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), and the referee is Andrea Colombo. Lazio (64%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Lazio vs Cagliari: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lazio lie 1st, having collected 28 points after 10 matches (9W 1D 0L); Cagliari lie 12th, having collected 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Lazio average 2.4 goals for and 0.8 against, compared with 0.9 for and 1.4 against for Cagliari.
- Form in the competition. Lazio: 8W 1D 0L, goals 22–7; Cagliari: 4W 1D 4L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. In 29 previous meetings, Lazio have taken 23 wins to Cagliari's 2 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 57–20.
What to expect
In our view Lazio hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (12.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.87), which we give a 53% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 49%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 53%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 29; Lazio 23 wins, 4 draws, Cagliari 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Lazio 22–7, Cagliari 8–13.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
- Unavailable: Lazio 4, Cagliari 2.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 51%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Cagliari will be without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lazio vs Cagliari: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.53 | 4.60 | 7.52 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.80 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 47.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 2.99 | 31.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.85 | 1.81 | 51.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 12:55. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lazio 1–0 Cagliari, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lazio 1st (28 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lazio 8W 1D 0L (22:7), Cagliari 4W 1D 4L (8:13).
- H2H: 29 matches: Lazio 23W 4D 2L, goals 57–20.
- Absences: Lazio 4, Cagliari 2.
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lazio vs Cagliari: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lazio vs Cagliari: injuries and missing players
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
Cagliari
- M. Feliciknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Idrissiknee injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lazio
Home and away
Lazio vs Cagliari: last matches of both teams
Lazio
Cagliari
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LazioWWWWWCagliariLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lazio vs Cagliari?
Over 2.5 goals (1.87); Lazio to win (1.53).
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
Our estimate gives Lazio a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cagliari 14%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 14:00, venue Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Andrea Colombo.
Who will be missing?
Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.87) and under 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (12.5%), then 2–0 (12.2%) and 1–1 (10.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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