Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Le Mans welcome Toulouse on 16 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans), and the referee is A. Petit. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Le Mans lie 17th, having collected 7 points after 9 matches (1W 4D 4L); Toulouse lie 10th, having collected 13 points (3W 4D 3L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 62%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 58%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
- Unavailable: Le Mans 0, Toulouse 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 62%, top price 1.55). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Le Mans: no absences. Toulouse will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.21 | 3.70 | 2.31 |
| Market average | 3.13 | 3.59 | 2.25 |
| Lowest odds | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.17 | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.64 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.28 | 41.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.50 | 37.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.42 | 38.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 16/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Le Mans 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Le Mans 17th (7 points), Toulouse 10th (13 points).
- Absences: Le Mans 0, Toulouse 0.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
Le Mans vs Toulouse: injuries and missing players
Le Mans
- No reported absences
Toulouse
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Le Mans
Home and away
Le Mans vs Toulouse: last matches of both teams
Le Mans
Toulouse
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Over 2.5 goals (1.70); Draw or Toulouse (X2) (1.40).
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Our estimate gives Le Mans a 31% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Toulouse 43%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 16 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans. Referee: A. Petit.
Who will be missing?
Le Mans: no absences. Toulouse: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.70) and under 2.5 goals at 42% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 62% (odds 1.55).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.3%), then 1–2 (9.0%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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