Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 6 November 2026 · 19:45 at Stadium Municipal (Toulouse), Toulouse take on Strasbourg, with Mathieu Vernice in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Toulouse win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Toulouse lose.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Toulouse lie 10th, having collected 13 points after 10 matches (3W 4D 3L); Strasbourg lie 13th, having collected 10 points (3W 1D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Toulouse average 1.3 goals for and 1.4 against, compared with 1.9 for and 2.1 against for Strasbourg.
- Form in the competition. Toulouse: 2W 4D 3L, goals 12–13; Strasbourg: 3W 1D 5L, goals 17–19.
- Head to head. In 14 previous meetings, Toulouse have taken 3 wins to Strasbourg's 7 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 16–22.
What to expect
In our view Toulouse hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.1%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.58), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 59%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 14; Toulouse 3 wins, 4 draws, Strasbourg 7 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Toulouse 12–13, Strasbourg 17–19.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
- Unavailable: Toulouse 3, Strasbourg 2.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Toulouse: A. Donnum, R. Messali, M. Niflore. Strasbourg will be without: J. Panichelli, F. Balde. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.25 | 3.91 | 3.29 |
| Market average | 2.15 | 3.72 | 3.13 |
| Lowest odds | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.18 | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.61 | 59.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.33 | 40.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.57 | 2.47 | 38.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.52 | 61.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.41 | 38.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 6/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Toulouse 1–1 Strasbourg, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Toulouse 10th (13 points), Strasbourg 13th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Toulouse 2W 4D 3L (12:13), Strasbourg 3W 1D 5L (17:19).
- H2H: 14 matches: Toulouse 3W 4D 7L, goals 16–22.
- Absences: Toulouse 3, Strasbourg 2.
Who will win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: injuries and missing players
Toulouse
- A. Donnumabsence · will miss the match
- R. Messalithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Nifloreknee injury · doubtful
Strasbourg
- J. Panichelliknee injury · will miss the match
- F. Baldeabsence · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Toulouse
Home and away
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: last matches of both teams
Toulouse
Strasbourg
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
ToulouseWLDWDStrasbourgLWLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Toulouse -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.96); Under 3.5 goals (1.58).
Who will win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Our estimate gives Toulouse a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Strasbourg 30%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 6 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Stadium Municipal, Toulouse. Referee: Mathieu Vernice.
Who will be missing?
Toulouse: A. Donnum, R. Messali, M. Niflore. Strasbourg: J. Panichelli, F. Balde. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.68) and under 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.43).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.1%), then 2–1 (9.1%) and 1–0 (8.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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