Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monaco welcome Lille on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Stade Louis II (Monaco), and the referee is François Letexier. Monaco (49%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Monaco vs Lille: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Monaco lie 7th, having collected 15 points after 9 matches (4W 3D 2L); Lille lie 2nd, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Monaco average 1.4 goals for and 0.9 against, compared with 1.4 for and 0.7 against for Lille.
- Form in the competition. Monaco: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–6; Lille: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Head to head. In 30 previous meetings, Monaco have taken 11 wins to Lille's 10 wins, plus 9 draws; the goal tally stands at 39–33.
What to expect
In our view Monaco hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 30; Monaco 11 wins, 9 draws, Lille 10 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.4 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Monaco 10–6, Lille 10–5.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 58%, top price 1.70). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Lille will be without: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Monaco vs Lille: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.04 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.91 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.74 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.11 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.74 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Monaco 1–1 Lille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monaco 7th (15 points), Lille 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Monaco 4W 2D 1L (10:6), Lille 4W 2D 1L (10:5).
- H2H: 30 matches: Monaco 11W 9D 10L, goals 39–33.
- Absences: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Monaco vs Lille: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Monaco vs Lille: injuries and missing players
Monaco
- S. Idumbogroin injury · will miss the match
- E. Diermuscle injury · doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Monaco
Home and away
Monaco vs Lille: last matches of both teams
Monaco
Lille
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MonacoLDLDWLilleWDDWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Monaco vs Lille?
Over 2.5 goals (1.81); Monaco to win (2.04).
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
Our estimate gives Monaco a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lille 24%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 14:00, venue Stade Louis II, Monaco. Referee: François Letexier.
Who will be missing?
Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Lille: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.81) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.3%), then 1–0 (9.8%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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