Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 30 October 2026 · 19:45 at Rodney Parade (Newport), Newport County take on Chesterfield, with Z. Kennard-Kettle in charge. We make Chesterfield (54%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Chesterfield win. Loses: a draw, Chesterfield lose.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Newport County lie 14th, having collected 18 points after 14 matches (4W 6D 4L); Chesterfield lie 10th, having collected 19 points (5W 4D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Newport County average 1.2 goals for and 1.2 against, compared with 1.8 for and 1.3 against for Chesterfield.
- Form in the competition. Newport County: 3W 6D 4L, goals 16–16; Chesterfield: 5W 4D 4L, goals 23–17.
- Head to head. In 9 previous meetings, Newport County have taken 4 wins to Chesterfield's 4 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 16–16.
What to expect
In our view Chesterfield hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 0–1 (12.0%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.87), which we give a 51% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 50%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 9; Newport County 4 wins, 1 draw, Chesterfield 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.6 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Newport County 16–16, Chesterfield 23–17.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
- Unavailable: Newport County 0, Chesterfield 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.95). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Newport County: no absences. Chesterfield will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.00 | 3.95 | 1.98 |
| Market average | 4.60 | 3.67 | 1.72 |
| Lowest odds | 3.02 | 3.01 | 1.65 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.26 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.87 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.89 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.15 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.81 | 51.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.93 | 1.91 | 48.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 30/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newport County 14th (18 points), Chesterfield 10th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Newport County 3W 6D 4L (16:16), Chesterfield 5W 4D 4L (23:17).
- H2H: 9 matches: Newport County 4W 1D 4L, goals 16–16.
- Absences: Newport County 0, Chesterfield 0.
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Newport County vs Chesterfield: injuries and missing players
Newport County
- No reported absences
Chesterfield
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | 4-3-7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Newport County
Home and away
Newport County vs Chesterfield: last matches of both teams
Newport County
Chesterfield
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Newport CountyWLDDWChesterfieldLWDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Chesterfield -0.5 (Asian handicap) (2.00); Both teams to score (1.87).
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our estimate gives Newport County a 20% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chesterfield 54%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 30 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Rodney Parade, Newport. Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle.
Who will be missing?
Newport County: no absences. Chesterfield: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.87).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–1 (12.0%), then 1–1 (11.4%) and 0–2 (10.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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