Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Monza vs Atalanta (Serie A, 8 November 2026, 14:00): Atalanta +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.60. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.50. The bookmakers' odds give Monza 29%, the draw 25% and Atalanta 46%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Atalanta win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Atalanta lose.
Monza vs Atalanta preview and prediction
Can Atalanta's away quality outlast a Monza side that has won only one of its last five? That is the question we keep returning to before this Serie A Matchweek 11 meeting at the U-Power Stadium, kick-off 14:00 on 8 November 2026. Our main tip is Atalanta +0 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.60 (chance 62%).
The key facts
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Atalanta 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Monza 2W 1D 7L (17:24), Atalanta 3W 2D 5L (16:20).
- H2H: 6 matches: Monza 0W 0D 6L, goals 3–18.
- Absences: Monza 0, Atalanta 1.
Table gap and the goals behind it
Atalanta sit 13th with 11 points from 10 matches, three wins, two draws and five defeats, scoring 16 and conceding 20. Monza are 18th on 7 points, with two wins, one draw and seven defeats, and a goal record of 17:24. These are the figures for this competition only, so cup and European results are not in them.
Both sides concede more than we would like. Monza average 1.7 scored and 2.4 conceded per match, while Atalanta average 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded. Neither defence is reliable, but Atalanta leak fewer goals, and that is the first reason we lean their way.
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Monza at home and their recent run
Monza's home record in this league is two wins, no draws and two defeats, with 9 scored and 8 conceded. That looks reasonable on paper. The wider picture is less kind. Across all competitions Monza have won one of their last five, a 4-0 win over Cagliari on 19 October, and lost the others, the last being a 2-1 defeat at Bologna. In those five games they scored 9 and conceded 12, and Napoli beat them 4-1 at home.
Atalanta's away problem
Atalanta's away numbers in this competition are the part we keep circling back to. They have one draw and three defeats on the road in Serie A, with 5 scored and 9 conceded. Their wider run is not much better: no wins in their last five across all competitions, two draws, three defeats, 8 scored and 14 conceded. The 4-4 draw with Frosinone and the 2-2 at Fiorentina show they still create chances, but they are not controlling games.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Six straight meetings in Atalanta's favour
The head-to-head is hard to ignore. Atalanta have won all six of the last meetings, scoring 18 goals and conceding three. The most recent was a 4-0 win at Monza on 4 May 2025, and Monza have not taken a point from any of the six. History does not decide a match, but it tells us this fixture has rarely gone Monza's way.
Hien's absence and what the bookmakers think
Monza have no absentees reported. Atalanta will be without I. Hien. We would not call that a major loss, though it does give the home side a small opening.
The bookmakers rate Atalanta at 46%, Monza at 29% and the draw at 25%, with best odds of 2.10, 3.44 and 4.01. The most likely exact scores are 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.9%). These figures describe what the bookmakers expect, not how past matches ended. The book's margin on the result is 6.4%, so the prices are fair rather than generous.
Monza vs Atalanta: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.12 |
| Market average | 3.29 | 3.74 | 2.07 |
| Lowest odds | 2.86 | 3.35 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 81.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 1.56 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.57 | 2.45 | 38.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.34 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.54 | 36.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 04:55. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.6%.
Monza vs Atalanta: injuries and missing players
Monza
- No reported absences
Atalanta
- I. Hienabsence · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Our Monza vs Atalanta betting tip: Atalanta +0
Our main tip is Atalanta +0 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.60, a 62% chance from the market. At +0 an Atalanta win wins, a draw returns the stake, and a defeat loses. On the likeliest scores, it returns the stake on 1-1 and 2-2, wins on 1-2, 0-1 and 0-2, and loses on 2-1.
We back it because Monza have won only one of their last five, because Atalanta sit higher with 11 points against Monza's 7, and because Atalanta have won six of the last six meetings while Monza have won none. The market agrees at 62% and best odds of 1.60. We are not calling Atalanta comfortable winners; a 2-1 home result would beat us, and that is why the stake is not bigger.
Monza vs Atalanta: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MonzaLLLWLAtalantaLDDLWOur second tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is Both teams to score at odds 1.55, a 62% chance. Monza have scored in all five of their recent matches across all competitions, and both teams scored in four of those five. Atalanta have had both teams score in three of their last five. The expected total is about 3 goals, with Monza around 1 and Atalanta around 2, which is why we like a home goal to come.
On the likeliest scores it wins on 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2, and loses on 0-1 and 0-2. It is not a pure mirror of the main tip, since it wins on 2-1 where the handicap loses, so the two bets together cover more of the likely outcomes.
Monza vs Atalanta: last matches of both teams
Monza
Atalanta
Head to head
All matchesThree side bets we would take
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.20 (chance 81%). Short money, but it fits the expected total of about 3 goals.
- Draw or Atalanta (X2) at odds 1.36 (chance 71%). A cautious way to stay with the away side without needing a win.
- Atalanta +0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.43 (chance 67%). Half the stake on Atalanta +0 and half on Atalanta +0.5, so it sits close to the main tip.
Verdict: Atalanta to edge a goalful afternoon
We expect Atalanta to come away with at least a point, and possibly more. Monza's home record is balanced, but their recent results and the six straight defeats in the head-to-head point the same way. Our main tip is Atalanta +0 at 1.60, and our second tip is Both teams to score at 1.55. If the scoreline is 2-1 to Monza, the main tip is lost while the second tip wins, so the two bets are not a hedge but two different reads of the same match.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Monza vs Atalanta?
Atalanta +0 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
Our estimate gives Monza a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atalanta 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 8 November 2026 at 14:00, venue Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Atalanta: I. Hien. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.63) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.57).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (7.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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