Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Monza vs Fiorentina (Serie A, 23 November 2026, 17:30): Fiorentina +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.59. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.55. The bookmakers' odds give Monza 28%, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 46%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Fiorentina win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Fiorentina lose.
Monza vs Fiorentina: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Monza lie 18th, having collected 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L); Fiorentina lie 16th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
What to expect
In our view Fiorentina hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 59%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
- Unavailable: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.53). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Monza: no absences. Fiorentina will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Monza vs Fiorentina: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.56 | 3.96 | 2.10 |
| Market average | 3.32 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Lowest odds | 2.99 | 3.31 | 1.99 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.18 | 79.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.64 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.39 | 2.33 | 41.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.50 | 37.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.53 | 60.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.37 | 39.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 04:55. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Absences: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Monza vs Fiorentina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Monza vs Fiorentina: injuries and missing players
Monza
- No reported absences
Fiorentina
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Monza vs Fiorentina: last matches of both teams
Monza
Fiorentina
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Monza vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina +0 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
Our estimate gives Monza a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 23 November 2026 at 17:30, venue U-Power Stadium, Monza.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Fiorentina: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.68) and under 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.39).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.53).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.0%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (8.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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