Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Marseille vs Le Mans (Ligue 1, 22 November 2026, 19:45): Le Mans +1.25 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.96. Second tip: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52. The bookmakers' odds give Marseille 66%, the draw 20% and Le Mans 15%. The most likely score is 2–1.
Wins: Le Mans win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Le Mans lose by 1. Loses: Le Mans lose by 2 or more.
Marseille vs Le Mans: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Marseille lie 6th, having collected 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L); Le Mans lie 17th, having collected 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
What to expect
In our view Marseille hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Marseille 0, Le Mans 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, top price 1.71). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Marseille: no absences. Le Mans will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Marseille vs Le Mans: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.48 | 5.14 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.45 | 4.87 | 6.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.42 | 4.50 | 6.10 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.49 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.60 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 2.26 | 42.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.17 | 2.14 | 43.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 05:05. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Marseille 2–1 Le Mans, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Le Mans 17th (7 points).
- Absences: Marseille 0, Le Mans 0.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Mans?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Marseille vs Le Mans: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Marseille vs Le Mans: injuries and missing players
Marseille
- No reported absences
Le Mans
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Le Mans: last matches of both teams
Marseille
Le Mans
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Marseille vs Le Mans?
Le Mans +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.96); Over 2.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Marseille vs Le Mans?
Our estimate gives Marseille a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Mans 15%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Orange Vélodrome, Marseille.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: no absences. Le Mans: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 2–0 (9.8%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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